Final prediction for Oklahoma's 2025 playoff path ahead of CFP selection

How will things look on Selection Sunday?
Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Every team has done all it can to state its case for a spot in the College Football Playoff and where it should be ranked, so now it's all in the hands of the CFP selection committee.

The final CFP rankings and playoff bracket will be revealed at 11 a.m. CT Sunday on ESPN. The Oklahoma Sooners already locked in their spot in the playoff during the final week of the regular season, but with Championship Weekend concluded, it seems they also secured a home first-round game at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium.

With the dust settled from conference championship games and an entire regular season, here's how the rankings and bracket will likely look on Selection Sunday and what path the Sooners will have to take to get their first national title since 2000. This also doesn't represent how I believe things should be, but how the committee will sort things out based on results.

College Football Playoff bracket prediction

1. Indiana
2. Georgia
3. Ohio State
4. Texas Tech

Indiana deserves the top spot after beating then-No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship Game and finishing as the last remaining undefeated team. That loss slipped the Buckeyes to No. 3 below SEC champion Georgia. Texas Tech earned the final first-round bye after hammering BYU in the Big 12 Championship Game. Dropping Ohio State to No. 3 instead of 4 also avoids a possible rematch between Indiana and Ohio State in the semifinals.

(12) James Madison at (5) Oregon

A five-loss Duke team with just one ranked win doesn't belong in the playoff, even with an ACC title, so Sun Belt champion James Madison sneaks in and gives the Group of Five two representatives. Oregon's lone loss was to No. 1 Indiana, so maintains the No. 5 spot ahead of other one-loss teams Ole Miss and Texas A&M.

The winner in Eugene would play No. 4 Texas Tech.

(9) Notre Dame at (8) Oklahoma

The matchup OU fans have been expecting for weeks now. Chaos was a minimum over Championship Weekend, which meant Notre Dame got to keep its playoff spot and will travel to Oklahoma. The committee has yet to (correctly) consider Miami's head-to-head win over Notre Dame, and that probably won't change on Sunday.

No chaos also meant the Sooners stayed put to host a first-round game for what will be the biggest game ever in Norman.

The winner of OU and Notre Dame would then get No. 1 Indiana coming off a Big Ten Championship Game win and a bye.

(11) Tulane at (6) Ole Miss

Tulane used a dominant win over North Texas in the American Championship Game to punch its ticket to the playoff and will play an Ole Miss team that will be in action for the first time since head coach Lane Kiffin left for LSU. Since the committee didn't penalize the Rebels on Tuesday for losing their coach, it likely won't on Selection Sunday either.

The winner here would play No. 3 Georgia in the quarterfinals.

(10) Alabama at (7) Texas A&M

Alabama gets in with the final at-large bid. The Crimson Tide was blasted by Georgia 28-7 in the SEC Championship Game, but they also beat the Bulldogs earlier in the season.

This decision from the committee could also have a catastrophic effect throughout college football. If Bama was dropped ultimately because of a loss in a conference title game, it would not only completely erase the importance of conference championship games, but make them a hinderance instead of an honor. SEC commissioner Greg Sankey would start making immediate moves to scrap the SEC Championship Game if it cost his team a playoff spot. The committee doesn't want to penalize a team for making a championship game and open that can of worms.

The compromise, though, is to drop Bama one spot to No. 10 to be below Notre Dame, which hides from a conference championship game of any kind. That move also avoids a first-round rematch between Bama and OU.

The winner of Bama and Texas A&M in College Station would play No. 2 Georgia next, setting up a possible third meeting between the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs.

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