It should be easy for the Oklahoma Sooners to get going in the 2025 college football season.
ESPN's SP+ predicted a 43-9 win for the Sooners over Illinois State in their season opener, according to ESPN's Bill Connelly, who created the projection model. OU also has a 98% win probability, according to SP+, almost guaranteeing the Sooners to start things 1-0.
Sooners projected to rout Illinois State
According to ESPN, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, that Connelly created.
Connelly shared a prediction from SP+ for every Week 1 matchup. Among them was a 27-20 loss for Texas to Ohio State. The model also predicted Clemson to beat LSU 30-28, and although those would be tough losses for the SEC for conference bragging rights, they're also teams Sooner Nation would enjoy watching fail.
🪩🍾 WEEK 1 SP+ PICKS, HELL YEAH 🎉🥳
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) August 24, 2025
Ohio St 27, Texas 20
Clemson 30, LSU 28
Irish 30, Canes 29
Bama 32, Noles 18
SC 30, VT 21
Boise 36, USF 27
Utah 26, UCLA 22
Nebraska 28, Cincy 20
Jackets 30, Buffs 29
Frogs 32, Belichicks 27
Full list: https://t.co/47djNNM4lO pic.twitter.com/XEU4WpGeqW
Although a 98% win probability seems high, it would be historically bad if Illinois State upset the Sooners. Illinois State went 10-4 last season at the FCS level, but in the Redbirds' lone FBS matchup, they were blown out by Iowa, 40-0. OU is the only FBS foe on OU's schedule for 2025.
The Sooners and Redbirds will kick off at 5 p.m. CT on Saturday on ESPN+. It will mostly serve as a primer for OU's Week 2 primetime clash with Michigan in Norman.
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