College Football: Top five 2024 Heisman Trophy player future odds
By Brandon Self
Player Futures Link
Oklahoma football fans know a thing or two about the most prestigious award in college football. The Heisman Trophy is awarded to the ‘best’ college football player each season. Technically, that’s true, but we all know it’s actually given to the best offensive player on one of the nation’s top teams.
This time of year, we college football diehards yearn for football news. In most corners of college football, no news is good news this time of year. Barring some sort of injury, suspension, or transfer, June and July are meant to serve as low-breaking news segments of the annual college football slate. But, here at Stormin’ in Norman, there’s no such thing as an offseason.
As I stirred my brain this morning, I wanted to take a quick look at the 2024 Heisman trophy futures, just in case the wife let me take a quick weekend with the boys to Vegas and put down some coin on a Heisman hopeful.
There are obvious contenders on the list, but let’s look at the best odds from a betting perspective. Realistic chance of winning + long shot odds = good bet. I haven’t done math since I was a younger scholar, but that seems simple. So, here are the top-5 2024 Heisman Trophy player futures.
5. Dillon Gabriel – Oklahoma Sooners – +2500
A 100-dollar bet for Gabriel would net you a 2,500-dollar return. The second part of the equation is about as good as you will get. Now onto the football part.
Gabriel enters his second season in Norman with offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby. Gabriel is expected by many college football experts to lead the Big 12 in QBR during the upcoming season. He’s not a game manager, but he’s not Kyler Murray. In 2022, Gabriel went 230 for 367 (62.7%) passing for 3,168 yards and 25 touchdowns. His overall QBR was 154.4.
For Gabriel to have a good chance at a Heisman, three things need to happen:
Number one – OU has to win at least 11 games. That means that after the Big 12 game, the Sooners need to be 11-2 at least. The good news for Gabriel?… that’s doable. Texas and BYU will be tough, TCU is never easy, and the Big 12 title game will likely be a rematch with one of those three. Still, the revamped Sooners have a good shot at 10 regular season wins, leaving the Big 12 title game up in the air.
Number 2 – Gabriel needs to be better with his feet. In 2022, Gabriel rushed 89 times for 315 yards and 6 touchdowns. There are fundamental reasons I think he rushes more in 2023, which I included in this masterpiece article last month, but I think he runs way more in 2023. Plus, the 61-yarder against the Nebraska Cornhuskers is proof he has it in him. So, two for three so far…
Number 3 – Gabriel needs a go-to wide receiver to produce highlight plays, boost numbers, and serve as a third-down bailout. This one is the toughest to forecast of all three. My pick? D.J. Graham. I also think freshman Jaquaize Pettaway will be a go-to for Gabriel. If no WR1 steps up, however, Gabriel’s Heisman chance will shrink or grow (however you look at it) even more.
4. J.J. McCarthy – Michigan Wolverines – +2200
McCarthy leads the Big 10’s frontrunner going into 2023’s season. His odds are slightly better than Gabriel’s, and his offensive potential is as well. Michigan is expected to win the Big 10, and McCarthy is the primary reason.
In 2022, McCarthy went 208 for 322 (64.6%) passing for 2,719 yards and 22 touchdowns. His QBR in 2022 was 79.1. He’s an efficient quarterback that’s yet to make the leap into legitimate Heisman contention… that is, until now.
McCarthy will lead the Big 10 in passing this year, and one of the biggest reasons for this may also be the most significant reason he will compete for a Heisman. Michigan’s receiving core is loaded. Roman Wilson, AJ Henning, and Darrius Clemons lead one of the most athletic receiving cores in the nation. Former Michigan receiver Andrel Anthony has transferred to Oklahoma, which hurts. Still, the Wolverines receivers will allow a wide variety of options for McCarthy.
The biggest hurdle for McCarthy ironically serves as one of the reasons I see Michigan winning the conference. Running back Blake Corum is arguably the best RB in the nation. In 2022, Corum carried the ball for a 13th national ranking of 247 carries. He rushed for 1,463 yards and 18 touchdowns. It would be crazy for Michigan to not lean on Corum heavy again this season. Overall this makes Michigan better, but it takes away from McCarthy.
One thing to think about concerning the McCarthy-Corum Heisman conundrum. Corum ended 2022 with a left-knee injury and missed most of Michigan’s Spring practice. Is he going to be the same back in 2023? Time will tell, but I see McCarthy stepping up to lead the Wolverine’s offense in 2023, and his Heisman chances keep increasing. This one’s a good bet.
3. Cade Klubnik – Clemson Tigers – +1400
Klubnik will win a Heisman trophy eventually, but will it be this year? I don’t see anything outside of Florida State stopping him from it.
In 2022, Klubnik won the Tigers’ quarterback job over former 5-star phenom D.J. Uiagalelei who’s since transferred to Oregon State. In the ACC Championship game, Klubnik formally took over the position against North Carolina. In this game, Klubnik, a freshman, went 20-24 for 279 yards and 1 touchdown. That’s an 83-percent completion percentage and a 194.7 QBR. Against Tennessee in the Orange Bowl, Klubnik went 30 of 54 for 320 yards.
His offense is loaded, and their conference is wide open. There are two games of film on him in an offense centered around another quarterback. With an entire offseason, immense talent at his disposal, and a weak schedule, Klubnik will put up Heisman numbers in 2023.
Another interesting Heisman point for Klubnik is that he gets to dual three other potential Heisman contenders during the 2023 season. September 23 sees him dual Florida State and QB Jordan Travis (+1100). On November 4, he duals Notre Dame and QB Sam Hartman (+1400); finally, on November 18, he duals Heisman frontrunner Drake May (+900). Suppose Klubnik can outplay these three Heisman hopefuls, all of who have better odds than himself. In that case, he will skyrocket his chances of being in New York when awards season arrives.
2. Michael Penix Jr. – Washington Huskies – +1100
Michael Penix Jr. was the second-best quarterback in the PAC 12 last year behind Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Doesn’t that also mean he was the second-best in the nation as well? So, if I use some deductive reasoning, all he has to do to win a Heisman is be better than one guy in his conference? The dual is on.
In 2022, Penix Jr. finished the season ranked second nationally in passing yards with 4,641 yards! He also threw 31 touchdowns and ran for 4 more touchdowns. Bold prediction alert… Penix Jr. will be the best quarterback drafted in next year’s NFL Draft, professionally.
Michael Penix Jr. is a proven Heisman frontrunner. So, why is he the number two best odds on our list? His future payout is +1100. That is insane! He pays better than Caleb Williams (+350), Drake Maye (+900), Bo Nix (+1100), and Jordan Travis (+1100)… all of which he has a legitimate chance to beat next year. I would think his odds would be closer to +500 or +600, and that would still be a steal for me.
Washington has a chance to be decent, and it all hinges on Penix Jr. If the Huskies can compete for a conference title, something I see very likely to happen, Penix Jr. could dual Caleb Williams in a late season, conference title, Heisman interview game.
But if you want to get rich quick. Follow my advice on this next guy…
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. – Ohio State Buckeyes – +4500
That isn’t a typo. That is a 4 at the beginning of that number. If you bet 100 dollars on Harrison to win the Heisman in 2023, you’d get 4500 dollars in return.
As I explained this to my wife, she looked at me like, “…what? no, you can’t go to Vegas with the boys to bet on football.” Apparently, she doesn’t like money…
Marvin Harrison Jr. is America’s best receiver/offensive football player/college football player. What’s crazy about him is that everyone knows that… and they still are giving him +4500 odds to win the Heisman. I’m more likely to figure out how wormholes in deep outer space form and work than I am to figure out how this guy has +4500 odds to win a trophy he should’ve won last year.
In 2022, Harrison had 77 receptions for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, he was unstoppable in Ohio State’s most significant moments. When he wants to make a play, he will… plain and simple. No defense in America can stop this guy.
The one factor that hurts Harrison’s Heisman chances, which isn’t even his fault, is Michigan. If Michigan whoops Ohio State again this year, that hurts his chances at a Heisman. Since he isn’t a quarterback, he’s not in control and relies on others to help him win the trophy. Voters will de-legitimize him if Ohio State goes to Michigan this year and gets beat, even if he has a big game.
Last year when Ohio State lost to Michigan 45-23, Harrison had 7 receptions for 120 yards and a score. He did more than his part.
If I were a betting man, I’d go all in on Marvin Harrison Jr. in the 2023-2024’s Heisman campaign.
So, get the Wolfpack together, find a mini-van, and get to Vegas. Convince the wife she can finally some Lulu’s because Marvin Harrison Jr. has +4500 odds to win the Heisman. If she needs some convincing show her this article, put on some footage of Ohio State from last year, and finally… if she still is unconvinced, show her Harrison’s Louis’ he wore last year. Maybe that’ll sell her. See you at Caeser’s.
