Oklahoma football: Top 5 reasons Dillon Gabriel will be an All Big-12 QB in 2023

Gabriel Consistently Improves Every Year

NORMAN, OK – NOVEMBER 19: Quarterback Dillon Gabriel #8 of the Oklahoma Sooners throws a pass before Bedlam against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 19, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma. The Sooners won 28-13. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

Dillon Gabriel has shown a positive trend in his efficiency throughout his career. Since becoming a college quarterback in 2019, Gabriel has been a model of efficiency, which is why he returns in 2023 as the Big 12’s highest-rated quarterback in terms of QBR. Gabriel’s only season that lacked production was his Junior year at UCF when he got injured. So let’s take a look at Gabriel’s trends.

ORLANDO, FL – SEPTEMBER 11: Dillon Gabriel #11 of the UCF Knights attempts a pass during warmups against Bethune Cookman Wildcats at the Bounce House on September 11, 2021 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images)

Completion Percentage

In Gabriel’s first three seasons at UCF, his completion percentages were: 59.3% – 60.0% – 68.6%. In his first year in Norman, it was 62.7%, but keep in mind that he’s coming off an injured season and transferring to a much higher level of competition. His completion percentage should be upwards of 67% this season, which would’ve landed him the top spot in the conference last year. That would only be a 4 percentage point jump, half of his most significant jump at UCF.

ORLANDO, FL – NOVEMBER 21: Dillon Gabriel #11 of the Central Florida Knights warms up before the game against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Bounce House-FBC Mortgage Field on November 21, 2020 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images)

Passing Touchdowns

In Gabriel’s first three years at UCF, his passing touchdown numbers were: 29 – 32 – 9. He threw for 25 touchdowns in 2022. He’s already the returning leader in the Big 12 for touchdown passes, finishing 2022 behind Max Duggan of TCU (32). My number for Gabriel’s TD passes in 2023 is 33, which would easily land him 1st overall in the conference. Improved receiver depth, running back depth, and playbook understanding will make this number achievable.

ORLANDO, FL – NOVEMBER 02: Dillon Gabriel #11 of the UCF Knights warms up during an NCAA football game between the Houston Cougars and the UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium on November 2, 2019 in Orlando, Florida. (Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images)

Interceptions

In Gabriel’s first three years at UCF, his interception numbers were: 7 – 4 – 3. 2022 saw him throw 6 interceptions for the Sooners (two of which were clear receiver errors). He finished 2022 tied with Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers at the 7th place position for interceptions thrown. A realistic number of interceptions thrown in 2022 (receiver drop dependent) will be 4. This number would rank him 1st overall in the Big 12 among qualifying starting quarterbacks for interceptions thrown.

Gabriel’s career trends are positive, and his 2022 performance was already near the top of the Big 12. Suppose he improves slightly on his 2022 numbers (which his career history says he will). In that case, he will lead the Big 12 in completion percentage, passing touchdowns, and interceptions thrown. It’s rare for a QB to lead the conference in all three of these critical categories and not be named to the All-Conference team.