Oklahoma football: One player, one problem, one big prediction

On Thursday night in Orlando, Florida, both the 2022 Oklahoma football season and that of the Florida Seminoles will come to an end. These are two teams whose historical trajectories in recent season traded places this season.

After six consecutive seasons with 11 or more wins (not counting the 2020 shortened Covid season), the Sooners slipped to 6-6 in the regular season under first-year head coach Brent Venables. Meanwhile, Florida State reached nine wins in 2022 after four of the last five seasons with no more than six wins.

Oklahoma is in danger with a loss of suffering its first losing season since 1998. Las Vegas oddsmakers have established the 13th-ranked Seminoles as 9.5-point favorites over OU in their Cheez-It Bowl matchup.

Florida State is expected to be at virtual full strength when the Seminoles take the field Thursday night at Camping World Stadium in Orlando. The Sooners, on the other hand, won’t have that luxury. OU will be without three starters on offense and one on defense as well as several others who have opted out of this game either because of the transfer portal or declaring for the NFL Draft.

Among the Sooner opt outs is leading rusher Eric Gray, who rushed for over 1,300 yards and 11 touchdowns during the regular season and ranks 12th in the country, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.

For Oklahoma quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Orlando location of the game serves as a homecoming of sorts. Gabriel transferred to OU after three years as the starting QB for UCF, leading the Knights to consecutive seasons (2019 and 2020) of a No. 2 ranking in total offense. In 26 games at UCF, Gabriel threw for over 8,000 yards and 70 touchdowns.

In the 2022 regular season for OU, Gabriel had nearly 3,000 passing yards and 24 touchdowns. The Sooners have another UCF connection in offensive coordinator Jeffy Lebby, who was in that role at UCF in 2018 and 2019 and coached Gabriel in his freshman season.

Oklahoma and Florida State have played seven times previously with the Sooners winning six of the seven, including the last six. Four of those seven games have been postseason bowl matchups. OU has prevailed in three of the four, including the 2001 BCS National Championship game.

Here is what to watch for in the third annual Cheez-It Bowl featuring Oklahoma vs. Florida State:

One player

For Oklahoma:

True freshman Javonte Barnes takes on the lead running back role now that Eric Gray has declared for the NFL and will not play in the game. Barnes has 411 rushing yards this season in 10 games and has averaged 4.6 yards per carry. His best game was against TCU, when he gained 100 yards and scored two touchdowns. He and RB teammate Gavin Sawchuk, also a true freshman and someone who has seen very little action this season, must be effective running the football if the Sooners are to have a chance in this game. Otherwise, Florida State will drop eight and feast on OU’s passing game and one-dimensional offensive attack.

For Florida State:

The Seminoles have a host of playmakers on offense, but the one that makes everything come together is dual-threat quarterback Jordan Travis. Oklahoma has a history of struggling against dual-threat quarterbacks, and Travis could be the most dynamic of the QBs the Sooners have faced this season. Travis has completed 63 percent of his passes this season and ranks third in the ACC with 2,796 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s also very dangerous with his legs with 397 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. As Travis goes, so go the Seminoles.

One problem

Florida State leads the ACC in both total offense (475.7 yards per game) and total defense (307.3 yards allowed per game), but of even greater concern for Oklahoma is defending the Seminoles powerful run game. Florida State ranks 12th nationally, averaging 217.8 rushing yards per contest. Herein lies the trouble spot: The Sooners rank 108th in the country (out of 131 FBS teams) against the run. OU’s allows an average of 189.0 yards per game. Four times this season, the Sooners have given up more than 250 yards on the ground. Four different Florida State players have at least 450 rushing yards this season, led by Trey Benson with 983 net yards and a 6.8 average per attempt.

One prediction

This is going to be an uphill battle for Oklahoma. Certainly the motivation in there among the coaches and Sooner players to win the game and finish the season with a winning record, but it appears OU will be seriously outmanned and overmatched by a very good Florida State team that closed out the regular season with five consecutive wins. It will be a challenge for the Sooners to keep the game close.

Florida State 41, Oklahoma 28