Stormin in Norman
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Oklahoma football: One big number to decide OU-Baylor winner

By Chip Rouse

Dec 7, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooner running back Rhamondre Stevenson (29) runs with the ball for an overtime touchdown against Baylor Bears linebacker Terrel Bernard (26) in the 2019 Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 7, 2019; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooner running back Rhamondre Stevenson (29) runs with the ball for an overtime touchdown against Baylor Bears linebacker Terrel Bernard (26) in the 2019 Big 12 Championship Game at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /
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Nine years ago, the Baylor Bears rolled into Norman with a big chip on its shoulder and a big physical team, much like the case this weekend, and rolled out of town with its first win ever over an Oklahoma football team playing at home.

Baylor won that game in 2014 with emphasis, defeating the 16th-ranked Sooners 48-14, one of the worst home losses ever suffered in the long history of Oklahoma football. That was the last and only win Baylor has had at the Palace on the Prairie. The Sooners are 14-1 against Baylor in Norman and 11-1 in the Big 12 era.

Baylor burned the Sooners through the air in 2014, collecting 396 passing yards, but four of the Bears’ six total touchdowns came on the ground. Oklahoma actually outgained Baylor on the ground in the game, 171-148, and they’re probably going to have to do that again on Saturday if they’re going gain a victory and maintain their home dominance against the team out of Waco, Texas.

Baylor is averaging 201.5 rushing yards per game, 22nd best in the country. True freshman Richard Reese gets the bulk of that yardage, averaging 98.1 per contest.

The Sooners have not done a good job stopping or even slowing down the run game this season, although they have done much better against the run in their last two games, allowing just 3.72 yards per attempt and an average of 115 rushing yards per game.

The OU defense ranks 114th out of 131 FBS teams, allowing 190 rushing yards per contest, but in consecutive wins over Kansas and Iowa State coming into the Baylor game, Oklahoma has allowed just 115 rushing yards per game and 3.72 yards per attempt.

The team that wins the runs the ball best on Saturday will probably win the game. In the three games both teams have lost this season, they were outgained on the ground by their opponents.

The Sooners are averaging 217.5 rushing yards through eight games. That’s 16th best among FBS teams. Senior Eric Gray is the lead horse in the Oklahoma run game, accounting for 796 yards and 6.80 yards per carry, sixth best in the country.

OU is 4-1 this season when it outgains its opponent on the ground. Baylor is 5-1 when it has more rushing yards than the opponent in 2022, but 0-2 when it doesn’t. More importantly for Sooner fans, Baylor is 16-3 with Dave Aranda as head coach when it gains more rushing yards than the opponent.

The key to the OU-Baylor matchup on Saturday may well be rushing yards.

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