Oklahoma football: What are the Sooners’ likely bowl destinations?

With nine Oklahoma football wins already, the Sooners will be making their 23rd consecutive postseason bowl appearance and fifth with Lincoln Riley as head coach.

What hasn’t been determined is where and who Oklahoma will be playing in its 2021 bowl game.

The Oklahoma loss to Baylor last weekend probably ended the Sooners’ chances of making a fifth appearance in the College Football Playoff. Although there is still a path that could get OU into the playoff, but the reality of that happening is razor thin.

For the Sooners to work their way back into playoff consideration, It would require them to win their final two regular season games (at home vs. Iowa State and at Oklahoma State) and then defeat either Oklahoma State or Baylor in the Big 12 Championship. That is the part Oklahoma can control, but the Sooners would also need help from the teams that are ahead of them in the CFP rankings.

If the Sooners (9-1, 6-1) win this weekend (vs. Iowa State) and Baylor loses at Kansas State, OU would clinch a spot in the Big 12 Championship, regardless of what happens in the regular-season finale against in-state Bedlam rival against Oklahoma State.

If the Sooners lose either or both of their remaining two games and Baylor wins out (vs. Kansas State and at home against Texas Tech), they will not play for the Big 12 championship and cannot finish any higher than third in the Big 12 standings, If OU loses both of its next two games, they could finish down as far as fourth in the Big 12 bowl pecking order.

Are you still with me?

If Oklahoma wins out, including garnering its seventh consecutive Big 12 championship, the likely destination for the Sooners would be the All-State Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1 in New Orleans against the SEC’s second- or third-best team (assuming that the SEC champion makes the playoff).

If the Sooners win their final two regular-season games but, say, fall to Oklahoma State in the rematch in the Big 12 championship game, OSU, with two losses on the season, likely wouldn’t make it into the playoff, but instead would earn the Big 12 berth in the Sugar Bowl, as the Big 12 champion.

As the conference runner-up, Oklahoma could still receive a spot as an at-large team in one of the other New Year’s Six bowls, either the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix (Jan. 1) or the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta (Dec. 30).

In the scenario that OU ends the season with two losses, finishes behind Oklahoma State and Baylor, and doesn’t play in the Big 12 Championship, the Crimson and Cream probably will be headed to San Antonio and the Valero Alamo Bowl (Dec. 29), a bowl that surprisingly the Sooners have never played in.

Should Oklahoma go totally off the rails in its final two games and end up finishing fourth in the final Big 12 standings, the Cheez-It Bowl in Orlando is likely the Sooners’ bowl destination.

Earlier this week, the USA Today sports staff projected out where the Big 12 teams would be going this postseason based on the results thus far and what might be expected over the final two weeks of the regular season.

Oklahoma: Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma State: Fiesta Bowl

Baylor: Alamo Bowl

Iowa State: Cheez-It Bowl

Kansas State: Liberty Bowl

West Virginia: Texas Bowl

Short of the CFP, this would be the best possible outcome for the Sooners. But they still have to go earn in on the field.

So, a lot of moving parts between now and Selection Sunday on Dec. 5.

It’s all pretty simple: Oklahoma needs to get to the Big 12 title game for the opportunity to receive a postseason assignment to a major bowl.