Oklahoma football: Sooners Playoff path colossal hill to climb

Oklahoma football has earned the opportunity to play in three of the College Football Playoffs. Only Alabama (5) and Clemson (4) have more Playoff appearances.

Just two weeks ago, the Sooners were in prime position among the 2019 Playoff contenders at 7-0 and ranked No. 5 in both the Associated Press and Coaches Polls. Although that was no guarantee that Oklahoma would have been among the top five teams when the initial Playoff rankings were revealed earlier this week, odds are high that would have been the case.

That was then, but now Oklahoma finds itself in the precarious position of having eight teams representing four conferences ahead of the Sooners in the first Playoff rankings of the season, all vying for the four coveted spots that make up college football’s version of basketball’s Final Four.

The OU loss at Kansas State definitely dealt the Sooners a serious blow to their Playoff chances, and with teams from four Power Five conferences ranked ahead of them it just might be a fatal blow.

And with talk that there could be as many as two teams from the same conference making the Playoff field this season, that adds further complexity to OU’s Playoff hopes.

Oklahoma not only has to overcome the problem of having to jump over five teams between now and Selection Sunday on Dec. 8, but also is currently on the outside looking in insofar as potential conference champions are concerned. Why is the latter important? Because the CFP selection committee has made a strong statement in recent years about the importance given to winning a conference championship, and as things stand now the champions of the SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 are in line ahead of the Big 12 champion.

Having said that, the Sooners Playoff chances are razor thin, but not hopeless. It’s probably going to take more, though, than some simple chaos to clear the way for Oklahoma — more like a seismic shift.

First and foremost, the Sooners must win out from here, including a win in the Big 12 Championship. That’s a tall order in and of itself, and this season it guarantees absolutely nothing.

Oklahoma Sooners Football

At least one one-loss team is going to get into the College Football Playoff, and chances are very good that team is going to be the team that is seeded fourth.

In the interest of keeping things simple, Ohio State or Penn State is going to win the Big Ten. Both teams are ahead of the Sooners in the rankings and, regardless of who it is, will have a better season resume than OU, even if the Sooners win out. So there goes one Playoff spot.

We know the winner of the SEC is going to earn a Playoff spot, and it could be two. Let’s make this clear right now: If LSU beats Alabama, and it’s by more than a touchdown, the Crimson Tide will not be returning for a sixth consecutive Playoff appearance. That means the winner of the LSU-Georgia championship game will be in, and the loser out, along with Alabama.

If Bama is able to hold serve at home on Saturday over LSU, the Tide will win the Iron Bowl at Auburn and go on to beat Georgia for the SEC Championship. That scenario is a knockout punch for Oklahoma because Alabama will be in, and so will LSU as the arguably the country’s best one-loss team.

I don’t see Clemson losing any of its final three regular-season games (at North Carolina State, at home against Wake Forest and at South Carolina), and I don’t see Virginia doing the trick in the ACC Championshiip, so that puts the defending national champions in the Playoff again this season.

That potentially leaves one Playoff line to fill. All things being equal, and assuming that OU runs the table and captures a fifth consecutive Big 12 crown, the fourth and final Playoff spot will come down to the Pac-12 champion (Oregon or Utah, both currently ranked No. 7 and 8, respectively, ahead of No. 9 Oklahoma), and the Big 12 champion.

That would be an intriguing debate. The Sooners can actually come out ahead in that conversation, but it is going to take more than simply winning out. Style points definitely matter for Oklahoma from here on out. The Sooners need to win impressively, starting with Iowa State on Saturday, followed by decisive wins in the coming weeks at No. 12 Baylor and No. 23 Oklahoma State in the regular-season finale.

And OU will likely have to beat Baylor a second time for the Big 12 championship.

A lot of ifs and buts, but think of it in terms of candy and nuts and perhaps Playoff hope will spring eternal.