Nov 21, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; Big 12 logo on the field before the game between the Oklahoma Sooners and TCU Horned Frogs at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
There are plenty of preseason polls out predicting the order of finish of the Big 12 this college football season, and OU football reigns supreme in just about every one.
Nov 28, 2015; Stillwater, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Dominique Alexander (1) celebrates after defeating the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Boone Pickens Stadium. The Sooners defeated the Cowboys 58-23. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
You wouldn’t expect me to pose a contrary prediction on how the Sooners will do in the 2016 season, and you would be absolutely correct in that assumption. But what about the rest of the Big 12? Who is going to challenge Oklahoma in its quest for a Kansas-basketball-like 10th conference championship in the 21-year history of the Big 12?
As has become typical in Big 12 play, the conference is highly competitive from top to near the bottom and features several of the top teams in the nation. This coming season may not be strongest in league history in terms of the number of teams ranked in the top-10 nationally. but there should be no shortage of offensive firepower, which is something that the Big 12 has become well known for.
The Sooners appear to be a cut above the rest of the Big 12 in 2016, largely because of a high-powered offense spearheaded by one of college football’s best quarterbacks in Baker Mayfield. Oklahoma not only packs a powerful punch on offense, but also has enough defensive special teams presence to withstand the tough gauntlet that the Big 12 schedule presents.
OK, I’m sure all of you reading this are in agreement with me that Oklahoma is the class of the league, but how will things shake out behind the Sooners this season?
Here is my view of the Big 12 football landscape this season and what fans can expect things to look like come the end of the regular season on Dec. 3:
Oklahoma
– Some will argue that the Sooners’ nonconference schedule is more difficult than what they will face in Big 12 play. If OU plays like it is capable and does what it should early on, the reigning Big 12 champions will be 3-0 when they head into the conference schedule, and their biggest stumbling block to a perfect regular season may come in the 11th game of the season in the road trip to
Nov 28, 2015; Stillwater, OK, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) scrambles for a first down as Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive tackle Motekiai Maile (56) makes the tackle during the first quarter at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Oklahoma State – At the risk of showing favoritism to the Sooner State, I believe Oklahoma State is the Sooners’ biggest challenger this season. If that is the case, the regular-season finale between these two Bedlam rivals could be real interesting. The fact that it is played in Norman this year would appear to give the Sooners the advantage. I hesitate to point out, however, that the home field didn’t do OU much good the last time the two teams squared off at Oklahoma in 2014.
Baylor – Had Art Briles still been at Baylor, I would have flip-flopped the Bears and Oklahoma State. But that is not the case, and Baylor is not the same team without the offensive wizard Briles on the sidelines. The Bears still have enough talented players and an outstanding quarterback in Seth Russell, if he returns to the same form he had before his season-ending neck injury last season, to give everyone in the Big 12 fits. Baylor is going to put up points, so it is incumbent on their opponents to get the Bears off the field on third down if they want to win the battle on the scoreboard.
Texas – This is a make-or-break year in Charlie Strong’s third season as the Longhorns’ head coach. Although I believe Texas will be stronger this season than they have been in a while, I don’t see them jumping into the top tier of the conference. Quarterback play should be better, and they are set a running back, but the defense just isn’t up to historical Longhorn standards.
TCU
– The Horned Frogs have some major holes to fill on offense, including at quarterback, but a typically solid Gary Patterson defense will keep TCU in games, and they will win their share because of it. The Frogs get Oklahoma at home, which could pose some trouble for the Sooners, but they also must go to Baylor, Texas and West Virginia. I don’t see this TCU squad as nearly the team they were the past two seasons, especially on the offensive end, which can spell big trouble in the Big 12.
Jan 2, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; West Virginia Mountaineers wide receiver Shelton Gibson (1) catches a pass against Arizona State Sun Devils defensive back Kweishi Brown (10) and scores a touchdown during the first half of the 2016 Cactus Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
West Virginia – The Mountaineers have a highly favorable Big 12 home schedule, getting TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor at home. They should be as potent offensively as they have been the past several years, but there will be drop off defensively from the Big 12’s second-best “D” a year ago. The Mountaineers should hover around .500 in league play.
Texas Tech – It’s the same old story with Texas Tech: offensive juggernaut, no defense. Until this equation balances out more, the Red Raiders are going to score lots of points and move the ball fairly freely, but the same thing is going to be true of their opponents. Relying on outscoring your opponents is a strategy doomed to failure in the high-scoring Big 12.
Kansas State – On paper, K-State pales in comparison to more than half of the Big 12 teams, but head coach Bill Snyder has a way of getting more out of his team than the sum of the individual parts. I wouldn’t be that surprised if the Wildcats challenge Texas Tech and West Virginia for middle-of-the-pack respectability, but anything more than that would be a definite stretch, in my opinion. The schedule-maker didn’t do K-State any favors this season. The Cats have to go to West Virginia, Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU in 2016.
Iowa State – The Cyclones are 4-23 in Big 12 play the past three season, and they have a new head coach in Matt Campbell (previously at Toledo as offensive coordinator). You would naturally expect some growing pains with a new coach and a new system and philosophy, but Iowa State does have 13 starters returning, albeit from a team that was 3-9 overall a year ago. The only truly winnable game I see on the Cyclones’ 2016 schedule (they have Northern Iowa, Iowa and San Jose State in the nonconference) is the Nov. 12 game at Kansas. I should be a long three months in Ames, Iowa.
Kansas – Not much to say here. The Jayhawks should show some improvement under second-year head coach David Beaty, but even then, they are still one of the worst FBS teams in the country. Kansas has replaced Baylor from the early years of the Big 12 as the stepping stone of the conference. The Jayhawks were 0-9 in the Big 12 last season, and the average score in those nine games was 48-12, a five touchdown difference. You can draw your own conclusions.
