ESPN Has Sooners Sitting at No. 10 in Its College ‘Playoff Predictor’ Index
By Chip Rouse
The official College Football Playoff rankings for the 2015 season will not be released until Nov. 3 and weekly thereafter. Until then, the best measure available is the weekly national polls. ESPN has come up with its own weekly power index predicting the teams with the best chances to make a playoff run in the 2015 season and be one of the final four teams left standing. For the beginning of Week 5 in college football, the ESPN Playoff Predictor has the Oklahoma Sooners at No. 10 among the top contenders.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that two other Big 12 teams currently rank higher than the Sooners in the ESPN Playoff Predictor, which every week will rank the playoff contenders based on its College Football Power Index and what ESPN officials are calling “human logic,” or the eye test, to determine “which teams are still alive in the chase for the College Football Playoff.”
Unlike the traditional weekly polls, which assess a team’s ranking among the top team’s in college football based on what it has accomplished up to that point in time, the Playoff Predictor looks ahead to which teams will still be there, at the top of the pile, when the College Football Playoff selection committee makes it final determination.
Sep 5, 2015; Norman, OK, USA; Members of the Oklahoma Sooners sprit squad celebrate after a touchdown against the Akron Zips during the third quarter at Gaylord Family – Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
The two basic criteria that hold the greatest weight in the Playoff Predictor weekly rankings are the probability a team will win its conference championship and the probability it will end the season with fewer than two losses.
As of this week (Week 5 in the 2015 season), the contributors to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor give the Sooners a 16 percent chance of capturing the Big 12 football title and a 17 percent chance of ending the season with one or fewer losses (which would make them 11-1 heading into a postseason bowl).
That puts OU at No. 10 in the current Playoff Predictor rankings, and that is actually down two spots from the previous week. According to the Playoff Predictor, the Baylor Bears, fresh off a 70-7 pasting of Rice last weekend, is No. 2 in the rankings and in the best position to win the Big 12 football crown (48 percent chance) and earn one of the four positions in the College Football Playoff. The Bears are also given a 48 percent chance of losing no more than once, if at all, this season.
TCU also ranks above OU, based on the latest projections by the Playoff Predictor index. TCU is ranked 5th and given a 25 percent chance of winning the Big 12 this season.
Reigning national champion Ohio State is No. 1, with a 52 percent probability of winning the Big Ten title and returning to defend its national title. The other two teams that make up the football Final Four as of today, based on the projections of the Playoff Predictor are No. 3 Ole Miss (with a 38 percent chance of winning the SEC) and No. 4 Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish are independent in football and, therefore, do not compete for a conference championship. Their odds of finishing with one or fewer losses, however, according to the Playoff Predictor, are 31 percent.