Oklahoma football would’ve done even better in 12-team Playoff
By Chip Rouse
The College Football Playoff format has been in place for seven going on eight years, and has been one of the top four teams in four of those seasons.
The Sooners are also the only FBS team to make it into the playoff that many times and not record a win. If you count those four losses and the three times in the Bowl Championship Series era following their national championship season in 2000 that they played in the national championship game, the Sooners are a disappointing 0-7 in championship-level competition.
Now there is a giant wave picking up steam and roaring toward shore that appears almost certain to once again change the format for determining a national champion in major college football (a.k.a., the Football Bowl Subdivision).
Oklahoma was one of the frequent — some would say, too frequent — beneficiaries of the four-team playoff format. Perhaps not too surprising, the Sooners would have made it into a 12-team playoff every year but one, had it been in place back in 2014.
Oklahoma Sooners Football
That first year (2014) would have been the only year the Sooners would have been left out, and that wasn’t really ever an issue because OU finished outside of the final CFP rankings in that first season. To refresh everyone’s memory, 2014 was the year the Big 12 celebrated co-champions in TCU and Baylor, both ending up with 8-1 conference records. And Kansas State was right there too with a 7-2 league record and 9-3 overall.
Because the Big 12 chose to recognize co-champions instead of designating one champion, both Baylor and TCU were dropped to Nos. 5 and 6 in the final CFP rankings and were left out of the playoff. The Big 12 changed it policy thereafter to recognize one true conference champion, and the Sooners have been the conference champion every season since 2015.
Baylor, TCU and Kansas State, who would have been the 11th seed in a 12-team playoff, all would have been participants had there been 12 teams vying for the national championship in 2014. Baylor and TCU probably would have made it past the first round (vs. Boise State and K-State, respectively), but their run would have likely come to an end against higher-seeded teams in the quarterfinal round.
2015
In 2015, Baker Mayfield and the Sooners earned the No. 4 seed in the playoff, but lost to No. 1 Clemson in the semifinals. In a 12-team format, OU would have had a first-round bye and awaited the winner of No. 12 Houston and No. 5 Iowa. The Sooners probably also would have been favored in the quarterfinal matchup before facing Clemson in the semifinals. But OU would have probably gone beyond its opening game, something the Sooners haven’t managed in the CFP era.
2016
The Sooners did not make the playoff in 2016, instead beating No. 17 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl. At No. 7 in the final CFP rankings, OU would have been in as part of a 12-team playoff and would have been matched up with No. 10 Colorado in a first-round home game. A win over the Buffaloes would have secured the Sooners a spot in the quarterfinals against No. 2 Clemson for the second year in a row.
2017
Oklahoma’s double overtime loss to No. 3 Georgia in the Rose Bowl as part of the 2017 season was the Sooners’ best chance yet to make it past the first game and into the national championship. In a 12-team playoff, though, OU would have avoided having to face Georgia in the opening game and instead would have played the winner of No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Auburn. Then, OU would have likely gone up against Georgia in the semifinals just as it happened in reality, but perhaps with a different outcome.
2018
The 2018 season was Kyler Murray’s year to win the Heisman Trophy (one year after Baker Mayfield), but as the No. 4 seed in that season’s College Playoff, the Sooners were matched up against the No. 1 seed Alabama and Heisman runner-up Tua Tagovalia. The Crimson Tide raced out to a 28-0 advantage before the Sooners knew what hit them. OU ended up losing 45-34.
Under the proposed rules for a 12-team format, Oklahoma’s playoff seed would have been No. 3 instead of No. 4 because of the provision that the top four seeds would be awarded to the four highest-ranked conference champions. Notre Dame, the official No, 3 seed that season would have dropped to No. 5 under that ruling.
As the No. 3 seed, the Sooners would have played the winner of No.11 LSU and No. 6 Georgia. That would have given Murray and OU the welcome chance to avenge the playoff loss a year earlier to Georgia. Bama would have still been the Sooners’ likely opponent if they were to get out of the quarterfinals, but a chance to undo the disappointing outcome of the year before would have been so sweet.
2019
As the No. 4 seed in the 2019 playoff, the Sooners had the misfortune of drawing No. 1 LSU in the national semifinals. Some of us are still feeling the pain of that giant mismatch.
As the No, 4 seed in a 12-team playoff, Oklahoma would have been able to sit out the first-round in waiting for the winner of No. 12 Memphis at No. 5 Georgia. Who knows, the Sooners might have had the chance to double up in avenging the gut-wrenching loss to the Bulldogs a couple of years earlier, which would have made the loss to eventual national champion LSU a little more bearable.
2020
As the No. 7 team in the final CFP rankings last season, Oklahoma did not make the playoff as currently structured. But as the fourth highest-ranked conference champion, the Sooners would have earned a No. 4 seed and a first-round bye under the proposed rules for a 12-team playoff format.
As the No. 4 seed, OU would have been matched up with the winner of the first-round contest between No. 5 Notre Dame and No. 12 Coastal Carolina. Survive that and the Sooners would next face No, 1 Alabama or Cincinnati/Georgia.
What the 2021 season will hold for Oklahoma remains to be seen, but the Sooners are again projected as a leading contender for one of the four coveted playoff spots.
The four-team College Football Playoff structure will remain in place at least for two more seasons. If a new 12-team format is approved later this year, as expected, the earliest the expanded structure would go into effect would be the 2023 season.