Oklahoma vs. Houston: Expect Plenty of Points in This Top-20 Matchup
By Chip Rouse
A handful of games involving a pair of ranked teams headlines the opening weekend of the college football season, and Oklahoma vs. Houston may be the best of the bunch.
ESPN is billing this week’s season-opening games as the “best kickoff week ever.”
No. 3 Oklahoma and No. 15 Houston is one of four games this weekend pairing teams from the preseason top 25, and six other ranked teams are facing teams from another Power Five conference.
So much for the old-school notion of starting out the new season against a so-called walk-over opponent.
Houston surprised everyone last season by finishing the year with a 13-1 record and a big win over Florida State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl. The Cougars ended the season ranked No. 8 in the final AP poll.
The Sooners and Houston are two teams that know how to score and put up plenty of points. Both teams averaged more than 40 points a game last season. Oklahoma returns 92 percent of its total offense from 2015, including one of the best, if not the best, backfields in the country in Big 12 Player of the Year Baker Mayfield and running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon.
This will be the second season for OU and offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley’s Air Raid offense, which averaged 530 yards of total offense last season, seventh best in the nation. The Sooners have big shoes to replace in the receiving corps with the departure of All-Big 12 First Team wide receiver Sterling Shepard and Durron Neal, the team’s third best receiver.
What the Sooners lack in experience, they make up for in talent and depth at the wide receiver position this season. Mayfield, who threw for 3,700 passing yards last season and had the fourth best pass efficiency rating in the country, is expected to spread the wealth more among the Sooner receivers. Look for senior Dede Westbrook, who caught 45 passes last season, and tight end Mark Andrews to step up their production this season.
Oklahoma also likes to use Mixon as a receiver out of the backfield, allowing him to use his speed and agility in open space and create big plays.
The Sooners took the most hits on the defensive side of the ball, where they have lost several leaders, especially at linebacker. Defensive end Charles Walker anchors a solid OU defensive line and the secondary, with three out of four starters returning, is probably the best in the Big 12 as a good as they come nationally. Jordan Thomas and Steven Parker are the best of the OU defenders on the back end.
OU will have its hands full on defense with Houston dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. The Sooners have not done well historically when they have gone up against a scrambling quarterback with efficient and accurate passing skills who can just as easily tuck the ball and take off on the run.
Ward was one of only two quarterbacks in college football a year ago with 2,000 passing yards and another 1,000-plus yards on the ground. The other was Deshaun Watson of Clemson, and Sooner fans have not forgotten what he did against a very good Oklahoma defense in the College Football Playoff last December.
“Greg Ward is a guy who can really break you down and make you miss,” said Sooner head coach Bob Stoops this week to Oklahoma City Oklahoman columnist Berry Tramel and other reporters.
“It will be imperative that we squeeze him and stay in good position,” Stoops added. “You have to be in position to make good tackles in the open field.”
A pair of former Big 12 players are two weapons on the Houston offense to keep an eye on. Duke Catalon, a former running back at Texas, will see plenty of action in the Houston backfield against the Sooners, and Ra’Shaad Samples, a speedy and shifty slot receiver who began his career at Oklahoma State, is a dangerous receiver. Ward certainly will have them on his radar screen on Saturday.
Houston ranked in the top-five nationally with a 19.7 scoring margin in 2015 and ball-hawked its way to a plus-21 turnover margin, second best in the country among FBS teams. The Cougars scored 103 points off of turnovers last season, the most in the nation in that category.
The Cougars are very interested in becoming a member of the Big 12. There couldn’t be a better way to demonstrate their worthiness for membership than to upend one of the Big 12 giants in Oklahoma. That could be a huge factor in the motivational accelerants of which team want this game more.
Something to keep an eye on in this game is how effective Perine and Mixon and the Oklahoma offensive line are in establishing the Sooner running game. When OU gets 200 or more yards rushing in a game, the Sooners were 8-0 last season and are 75-2 under Bob Stoops. If the Sooners are able to run the ball, it also will open up passing opportunities and big plays deep, and that’s when Mayfield can be most dangerous.
The going might not be all that easy on the ground for Perine and Co., though. Last season the Houston front seven allowed just 108 rushing yards per contest, which ranked 18th best in the nation.
Three Other Keys to the Game
- Slow down Houston QB Greg Ward Jr.: Oklahoma must put pressure on Ward and not allow him to break the pocket, but they also have to respect his running ability and not overrun the play in a blitz package. On pass plays, the Sooner defense must disrupt Ward’s timing and not allow him to have time to find open receivers or open running lanes. Ward is the one player on the Houston roster who can beat you all by himself. Oklahoma cannot let that happen.
- Protect the football: Houston got over 100 points off of turnovers last season. The Cougars recovered 67 percent of their opponents fumbles a year ago and picked off roughly 25 percent of the passes they had a chance to break up. The easiest way for Houston to pull off the upset in this battle of ranked teams is to win the turnover battle.
- Control the line of scrimmage and the ball: The longer the Sooners can control the ball and move the sticks, the longer Greg Ward Jr. and the Houston offense remain on the sideline, which is the best defense Oklahoma can employ against the potent Houston offensive attack. Both of these teams can move the ball and put points on the scoreboard. The team that can get the most third-down stops, which will be a plus for a Sooner defense going against a team that ranked third in the country last season in third-down conversions, will win this game. It’s as simple as that.
My prediction: Oklahoma 45, Houston 34 -The more versatile offense and the better defense will ultimately prevail in this game.